On the scarcity of scientists

"Rising above the gathering storm" is the latest in a long series of publications that argue that America will soon run out of scientists and engineers. This sort of studies is commonly adopted quickly for the European markets too.

From my memory, studies like this go back to at least the late eighties, and maybe even earlier. The earliest study I'm aware of is an NSF study from the mid 1980's, which was bandied around aspiring PhD students pretty widely at the time with the prediction that on graduation in the early nineties, we'd all be guaranteed a job. We now know what happened to that.

The typical pattern of these studies is to link a modicum of political and economical analysis (in most cases of shockingly bad quality) to a foregone conclusion: we urgently need to educate 'xxx' more science and engineering graduates in order to stay economically competitive in a brave new world.

As with most lies, studies like these contain truths in reverse: the lie is that Western countries urgently need more science and engineering graduates--the truth is that science and engineering departments in the Western world are running out of students, fast, and urgenly need more students, graduate students and especially postdocs.

I'll probably be posting more about this particular study later, since I haven't read it in detail yet. I'm at this stage merely astounded that another one has seen the light of day.