Two interesting notes on pre-emption. In one of Morgan Stanley's economic dispatches (found here: http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060412-wed.html) Robert Feldman gives a definition of both normal and presumptive pre-emption. These types are of the sort that affect the decision making of the central banks, in this post the central Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Normal pre-emption is defined as situation in which the expectation is considered to be a hypothesis on the state of affairs, in the particular case of central banks this would be the economy. Another type, presumptive pre-emption, is defined as follows: "Rather than testing a hypothesis against emerging data, the central bank engages in “presumptive preemption” — i.e. it bases policy mostly on its expectation for the economy, and gives very little weight to actual data."
At this point it is interesting to keep in mind that pre-emption is now considered to be, and was recently confirmed to be, a key aspect of current American military strategy. See the discussion in the IHT by Henry Kissinger: "American Strategy and Pre-emptive War" (http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/13/opinion/edkiss.php).
This article contains the following interesting observation: "Pre-emptive strategy involves an inherent dilemma: When the scope for action is greatest, knowledge is at a minimum. When knowledge is high, the scope for pre-emption has often disappeared."
I cannot help thinking that at this point it actually matters whether one engages in normal or presumptive pre-emption. When engaged in presumptive pre-emption, the dilemma actually stands, and should act as a precaution against overindulging in military adventures such as the US is now engaged in in Iraq and may soon be engaged in in Iran.
When pre-emption in military strategy is of the presumptive kind, then, in the words of Kissinger's dilemma, the maximum scope for action actually coincides with the point of greatest expectation (which is the point of minimal knowledge). This suggests that presumptive pre-emption in military strategy is pre-emption of a dangerous kind.
